Expanding trade activities beyond Russia and China along with enhancing diplomatic relationships will top the list of topics for discussion at the inaugural EU-Central Asia summit happening later this week. Issues concerning human rights and methods to bypass Russian sanctions might receive less attention and could end up as minor points.
Ursula von der Leyen from the European Commission and Antonio Costa, who heads the European Council, plan to visit Samarkan d,Uzbekistan this Thursday. Their aim is to strengthen collaborations regarding energy supplies and crucial raw materials with the well-resourced area. Meanwhile, the leaders of the Central Asian group—comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—are looking forward to attracting investment for their industrial and infrastructural projects.
The full schedule also encompasses safeguarding multilateralism, addressing common and regional security issues, collaborating on clean energy initiatives, promoting tourism, implementing people-to-people programs, along with discussions about Ukraine.
President Costa has consistently stated since taking office that he thinks in this multi-polar world, the EU must strengthen its ties with international allies," remarked a high-ranking EU official who wished to remain anonymous before the summit. "Central Asia plays a significant role within this strategy.
Leading the high-level discussion is the objective, mutually acknowledged by both parties, to move beyond dependence on Russia and China. Historically and geographically, these nations have shown strong interest in acquiring goods from Central Asia, whereas their influence casts long shadows over Europe’s energy stability and technological sovereignty.
Russia’s comprehensive, unjustified attack on Ukraine, combined with Beijing’s and now Washington’s pragmatic stance towards trade and diplomacy, seems to have quelled the leftover hesitance among nations when it comes to interacting with one another.
Energy, crucial raw materials, and industrial expertise
For the EU, "the focus isn’t really on confronting China and Russia head-on; instead, it’s more about providing alternative options in certain areas, engaging in competition within specific sectors—particularly when it comes to raw materials and connectivity," explained Dr. Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations to Euronews.
Since the onset of the conflict, the EU has notably reduced its reliance on Russian fossil fuels. However, importing Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) into European harbours and pipeline crude oil into Central Europe continues to be problematic because they fund Russia’s military efforts. This situation underscores an additional dependence: during the shift towards greener energy sources, the EU relies extensively on China for raw materials. China dominates the extraction and refinement processes of numerous critical rare-earth elements needed for renewable technologies.
Central Asia is advancing its renewable energy sector and possesses substantial reserves of crucial raw materials. The European Union has already inked two Memorandums of Understanding with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan concerning this matter and now aims to secure a broader agreement focused on essential raw materials.
For the EU, this is a win-win as the bloc would secure the rare earths it needs to power its energy transition and boost its strategic autonomy, while the region would get the investments it needs to develop the local industry.
"The European Union isn’t just encouraging the mining and exportation of raw materials; rather, our aim is to foster local industries within the area. This approach will also aid in advancing clean technologies. We wish to collaborate with Central Asian nations across the entire supply chain," explained an additional high-ranking EU official who spoke under conditions of anonymity.
In the meantime, Central Asian nations also seek increased industrial collaborations to bolster their manufacturing capabilities and expertise. This development aims to enhance their export potential and, consequently, broaden their consumer markets.
Dr. Anna Matveeva, a visiting senior research fellow at King’s College London, stated to Euronews, “They have been cultivating industries aimed at entering European markets with products like chemicals, textiles, possibly construction materials—essentially anything not related to energy.”
However, for this, they must be capable of delivering their products to the EU.
"Tajikistan generates substantial amounts of aluminum and ranks among the top global producers. However, exporting this metal to the European Union poses significant logistical challenges; therefore, selling it to China and Russia becomes far more feasible," explained Dr. Matveeva.
Boosting transport links
The key element is the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, likely to be one of the main points of discussion for the leaders. Last year, the EU declared its commitment under the Global Gateway Initiative to allocate €10 billion towards what’s known as the Middle Corridor. However, this amount has been viewed by some critics as insufficient considering the length of the corridor and the difficulty posed by the rugged mountains along the way.
The Global Gateway Initiative is progressing quite slowly in terms of tangible impacts, which frustrates several partnering nations, such as those in Central Asia," said Marie Dumoulin, who leads the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), speaking with Euronews. This frustration has grown particularly since Russia initiated its assault on Ukraine, leading the EU to enforce extensive economic penalties on Russia.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projected in 2023 that approximately €18.5 billion would be required for investments to finish the necessary infrastructure projects along the path spanning only the Central Asian nations.
A potential result from the summit might be the introduction of a fresh Investors Forum focused on the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, scheduled for this year. A high-ranking European Union official affirmed this, emphasizing further funding as crucial to ensure success in this area.
But hard infrastructure is only the tip of the iceberg, Aruzhan Meirkhanova, a senior researcher for Kazakhstan’s National Analytical Centre, told Euronews.
Challenges related to soft connectivity—including inadequate regulatory alignment, inefficient borders, and the necessity for enhanced digitization of transportation paperwork—persistently impede the smooth flow of transit.
“Political will, trust, and stronger stakeholder coordination will be key to tackling soft connectivity challenges,” she added.
Circumventing human rights issues and sanctions
Hence, at this summit, both parties must tread carefully.
In Central Asia, the focus is on gradually moving closer to the Western sphere of influence without upsetting Russia or China.
Dr. Matveeva stated, "The Central Asian nations aim to adopt what’s referred to as a multi-directional foreign policy approach. This means they seek collaboration with various entities without estranging any particular one. Their intention is to gain advantages from every side."
"As mentioned earlier, they aim not to overstep their boundaries, particularly when dealing with Western nations like those within the European Union, since they wish to avoid appearing overly pro-Western for various reasons," she explained further.
For Brussels, however, it involves making agreements with specific regimes in Russia’s neighborhood that are often labeled as authoritarian, all while advocating for political and economic pressures on Moscow.
Senior EU authorities emphasized that they would bring up the topic of bypassing sanctions against Russia during the summit. This move comes as certain nations in the area have gained economically by exporting European goods to Russia, which are prohibited from entering the nation.
For example, German car and auto part exports to Kyrgyzstan surged by 5,500% in 2023, whereas they rose by 720% when compared to Kazakhstan, as stated in a report by Robin Brooks, who serves as the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
“A readiness to collaborate has been observed," stated a high-ranking EU official. "Naturally, we aspire for even greater cooperation, particularly since current circumstances demand stringent measures against Russia due to the significance of European Union sanctions. We view this situation as part of an evolving procedure."
Preserving its reputation regarding human rights could pose similar challenges for the European Union. According to Human Rights Watch’s yearly assessment of global human rights conditions, the EU was advised to "highlight" how Central Asian regimes suppressed opposition and tightened restrictions on free speech in 2024 through actions such as incarcerating political opponents, activists, and reporters.
“A senior EU official stated, ‘These are relationships that are currently evolving, and naturally, as they progress and expand, their influence could become more significant,’" he noted.
"We aren’t heading there to deliver sermons. Our aim is to voice our concerns, collaborate with them, and engage in conversations. The greater the extent of these dialogues, interactions, and engagements, the stronger we feel about being able to address and enhance every issue that matters to us," they further stated.
However, according to Dr. Meister, "the EU does not hold significant influence over these nations, and it is also failing to develop genuine leverage" regarding this issue.
He mentioned that the Commission would probably "allocate additional funds for civil society" but is currently taking a more "practical approach."
This particular tendency can be observed with von der Leyen, who I believe takes a more practical approach to matters of human rights and focuses more on interests.
