Intense storms have devastated the political landscape of Osun over the past several weeks. Both seasoned and novice participants in political activities have offered multiple perspectives on the reasons behind these events and their implications. These disturbances have now reached national politics, altering the nature of conflicts from Osogbo to Abuja.
Multiple unsuccessful rebellions occurred, yet the most notable one was the local administration’s overthrow attempt against the principles of justice. Consistent with every act of unlawfulness, this seizure lacked any legitimate basis, leading high-ranking national authorities to reassess the situation as a political conspiracy aiming for a lawful resolution. Consequently, it comes as no surprise that the strongest challenge to the current regime in Osun State is crumbling under the weight of real-world legal and political constraints.
In a developing work, the foundation laid by Andrews elucidates the reasoning behind the split with compelling detail. Former Governor Adegboyega Oyetola and his party have initiated a renewed effort using various tactics. They aim to undermine the current administration, seize control of local governance by leveraging federal power, and then utilize these local mechanisms as a launchpad for capturing statewide authority. The opposition’s strategy includes removing the incumbent from Abere via a strategic implementation of a state of emergency.
The opposition is involved in darker schemes such as penetrating labor unions, retirees' associations, and monetizing media through amplified false information. With their representatives authorized to engage in slander, defamation, and personal attacks, members of the governing party should be targeted using law enforcement agencies if they respond by unveiling the skeletons hidden in the opposition's closet.
To execute all these takeover plans, an extensive war fund must be accumulated and utilized. Poverty will be turned into a tool for manipulation, and religious communities will face severe pressure. Any violation of laws carried out in support of this undemocratic objective will be overlooked since the opposition shows no hesitation in converting national entities into politically biased organizations.
The ruling party’s APC faction genuinely thinks that their strategic plan to gain control of Osun before 2026 is flawless. Consequently, some members recklessly and irrationally boasted about the certainty with which they believed dominance would be achieved.
Associated Article OP-ED: Politics and Governance in Osun Following Multiple Challenges Alum from Gbongan Ode Omu Anglican Grammar School Covers WASSCE Costs for 26 Students Osun Cases Delayed Involving Two Clerics Claiming Position of Chief ImamOnce thoroughly examined, the opposition’s playbook contains significant gaps. The document's primary weakness lies in basing its operational achievements on the dismantling of the democratic system. To put it plainly, their key strategies involve commandeering the security forces for illicit activities, weakening the judicial system to ignore legal standards, employing violent tactics to arrest and intimidate public servants, undermining ethical values through exploitation of economic hardship, and breaking all established principles of good conduct referred to as Omoluabi.
This method comes with distasteful outcomes since democracy operates on rules. Once these guidelines are disregarded, those responsible for undermining legitimate authority become the primary casualties. These individuals lose their claim to being democratic and instead come across as petty dictators. Consequently, the global community rallies against this movement, leading to the collapse of such a fascist insurrection.
However, the Osun APC handbook has shortcomings beyond these issues. It cannot alter its past performance, nor can it erase the stories of poor management during its tenure in office. The opposing party overlooks those residents who clearly recall the difficult times and fear the potential takeover. Unless they intend some form of ethnic cleansing against the people of Osun, reclaiming control of the state through any means will be futile. Their standing with the public continues to be abysmal, particularly following their blatant incursion into various local government headquarters throughout the region.
Even if the APC publicly apologized for bad governance of the past, the dent will still stick. Worst still, the APC has persisted in errors, still adding insult to injury by glorifying the evil days of the pre-Adeleke era in Osun state. The people know and feel the undeniable incorrigibility of those failed men of yesterday.
The rulebook faltered significantly for an additional reason. Within just two years, the current governor, who lost favor divinely, managed to eclipse the accomplishments of their predecessor over four years. Whenever critics challenged Governor Adeleke’s effectiveness, shouldn’t they also address how multiple federal entities have recognized him as a beacon of good governance? Or could it be suggested that he bought this approval from the Federal Government?
So far, the Governor has been honored with nearly 100 spontaneous accolades for good governance from highly regarded newspapers, civil society groups, and international organizations. In a recent event, the Bill Gates Foundation-initiated primary healthcare challenge placed Osun as the leader in the Southwest region, securing a prize of $500,000. The remarkable achievements under Governor Adeleke’s leadership, consistently praised by local residents every day, have also earned repeated endorsements from numerous external entities.
A government supported by its citizens won’t collapse merely due to disappointment from last year’s events in 2022. For those interested, Governor Adeleke did not face the same circumstances as former Governor Oyetola in 2022. Their levels of public approval couldn’t be more different. Today, Governor Adeleke enjoys an approval rating exceeding 75%. Was this true for Mr. Oyetola back in 2022? Furthermore, his effectiveness ratings stand at over 85% currently. Is it fair to claim such high marks for the esteemed Marine Minister under similar terms?
Based on the preceding discussion, the effectiveness of a manifesto against an established leader hinges on multiple elements. In 2022, for the PDP, their strategy was nearly impeccable and bolstered by significant dissatisfaction among citizens towards Mr Oyetola’s administration. Currently, Asiwaju Adeleke enjoys substantial popular support. The performing governor dominates the streets of Osun. Therefore, the rival party’s attempt to remove him is destined to fail from the outset.
Let’s examine the domestic situations. Political dynamics at the national level are evolving swiftly. My tenure from 2013 to 2015 as a Special Adviser to a minister during ex-President Goodluck Jonathan’s administration was marked by an initial disbelief and denial regarding what would become known as the anti-Jonathan conspiracy. Now, we find ourselves in a different phase of power contention.
Recently, I came across an article in the Tribune discussing "Enemies from Within the Presidency." Additionally, there was content supported by the Osun APC suggesting that certain presidential officials are backing Governor Adeleke and might be pushing for his nomination as their candidate under the APC banner in 2026. Furthermore, the Osun PDP launched an assault on Umar Ganduje, claiming he is acting as an SDP operative collaborating with clandestine organizations against the president in the northern regions while fomenting discord in the southwestern part of Nigeria.
Across all scenarios, it’s evident that a nationwide political conflict is unfolding. Everyone is strengthening their stronghold. A playbook based solely on federal power to ignite conflicts within Osun State with the aim of seizing control is ineffective and destined to fail. No astute strategist would deploy forces around their own territory when adversaries can bombard them using external weapons like rocket launchers. Even someone inexperienced in warfare understands that having a secure command center is crucial for mounting a successful offensive.
With the national political arena growing more intense, the amateur strategists from Osun APC will come to understand the ineffectiveness of a fascist attempt to seize control at the state level. Without some unforeseen event erasing APC’s poor track record in Osun governance, Governor Gboyega Akinosun Omoboye’s continuation in office will be an ongoing certainty both presently and ahead.
Olawale Rasheed serves as the Spokesperson/Special Advisor to Governor Ademola Adeleke.ALSO SEE: Adeleke announces $400 million 2025 infrastructure initiative
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